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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys, I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert. I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning. When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions. The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts Part I
Why it matters
Using stops sensibly
Picking a clear level
Why it matters
The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.” You have to keep it before you grow it. Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around. The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices. Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.
Capital and position sizing
The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose. Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market. A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples. So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000. We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be? We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator". https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14 So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital. You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk. Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later. The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work. As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you. Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints. For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly: https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you. Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown. It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance. Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k. Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money. Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.
If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number? The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round. This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet. Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin. Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips. Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds. Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this: Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically. If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss. So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%. Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit! With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not. Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account. Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see. This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders. Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.
How to use stop losses sensibly
Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them. A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter. The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’. This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK. Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty. You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter. Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders. A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not. Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”. It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong. Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.
Picking a clear level
Where you leave your stop loss is key. Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible. If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200. The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up. Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD. https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802 If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend. So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level. There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section. There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high. https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81 Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument. Here are some guidelines that can help:
Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out. For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.
Coming up in part II
EDIT: part II here Letting stops breathe When to change a stop Entering and exiting winning positions Risk:reward ratios Risk-adjusted returns
Coming up in part III
Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
[Secret] Response to the Oil Embargo Part 2: Retaliation, Covert and Chaotic
While overt operations will play a role in the retaliation, some more covert ones are needed. For these more... illegal... operations, we will have to take a different approach. North Korea: Cyberwar, Inc. North Korea has a well-established cyberwar capability and has recently begun selling its services to third parties. One of those third parties is about to become us, and we're going to buy out the entire shop, consisting of thousands of highly trained North Korean hackers. Are they the best, no, of course not--they are, after all, still North Korean. They certainly aren't as good as what we have in-house, even though they're surprisingly skilled all things considered. But they're extra talent, and talent with no official connections to China, and that's what counts here. At whatever exorbitant price that North Korea charges [we've budgeted up to $500 million, and they will get to keep whatever they steal] we're siccing every trained hacker they have on what we view as the mastermind behind these plots, the United Arab Emirates [M: Even though we don't know the contents of the closed diplo, it's not hard to come to that conclusion given that Saudi Arabia is in a civil war, the UAE leads the GCC which is leading the embargo, and it has rejected our peace offerings and stated that we are an existential threat--also, assaulting the UAE is likely to spook the other participants who are in a much more frail situation]. Attacks will aim to be diverse and encompass the entire spectrum, with one exception, which we will do. Chinese experts will provide advice and limited intelligence and cyber-reconnaissance, but will not openly involve themselves in the operations, taking especial care to ensure that they don't touch the code the North Koreans are working on. We will maintain only a very high-level management, leaving precise means, targets, and so on to the North Koreans. In addition, we'll ask the North Koreans to recruit criminal hacker groups across the globe to join on to this effort, with the North Koreans receiving additional payouts for every other criminal hacking group they bring onboard that has been verified by Chinese intelligence as actually existing [we don't trust the North Koreans that much, especially when money is on the line]. Targets are the following, in order of priority: UAE Foreign Exchange Reserves and Sovereign Wealth Fund: By far the most valuable target on the list for North Korea, the UAE's forex reserves are worth about $100 billion, and the sovereign wealth funds of the Emirates are valued at as much as $1 trillion. North Korean hackers will launch an all-out assault aiming to steal as much of this money as possible, destroying it if they must but, we imagine, preferably transferring it to North Korean accounts. Attacks via SWIFT like those conducted by North Korea in 2015-16 are possible--those attacks amounted to hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. We doubt that North Korea will be able to steal that much of this pile, especially given the fact that the UAE has an army of ex-Western cyberwarriors of its own, but even a relatively small quantity would be a significant psychological injury and would degrade global trust in the UAE. Vital Infrastructure: North Korea will target key pieces of infrastructure in the UAE. In particular, they will target the following facilities and attempt to force them offline. Even though the individual attacks won't do much damage, the cumulative impact will scare the public, damage investor confidence, and drive money out of the UAE.
Dubai International Airport
All 8 desalination plants, the only source of potable water in the UAE [top target]
UAE High-speed rail [as this system uses Chinese software the North Koreans will happen to find a copy of the source code to work this one over]
Barakah Nuclear Power Plant [as this system uses South Korean software North Korea may have added experience with it]
Ruwais Refinery, capacity 400,000 barrels of oil per day, the largest in the UAE
Influential Figures And Government Officials: North Korean hackers will also target the personal devices of government officials and influential figures in the UAE, especially politicians, military commanders, and media types. They will then leak anything remotely incriminating to the global media, possibly via Wikileaks or another such site of ill repute. In addition, for particularly important government officials, North Korea will be commissioned to produce deepfakes with which it will flood social media. These will mostly focus on baseless conspiracy theories and personal slanders, for instance, catching a top official on mike confessing to being a devil-worshiper, or portraying a popular imam as being with Western prostitutes. It is hoped that these operations will cause enough domestic trouble in the UAE that they will concede on the point of the oil embargo. If nothing else, though, they should keep the UAE distracted while we move elsewhere.
Managers face a new challenge–managing a remote forex trader team with more and more Forex companies looking out for outsourcing. Events such as motivational tactics, task control and Communications still require a specialist approach even if this has been simplified using technology and a high-speed Internet. The advantages of employing people on a distance are endless and make your competitive edge easy. Your company can help create a talented team of the best specialists in the market because you can not just hire people from everywhere in the world. This is why a remote employment type will continue to gain momentum in the future. It’s all the challenges that value it. Remote job is very easy–output, autonomy and flexibility. You influence the manner you operate your team, the smoothness and achievement of the company procedures. And although most individuals still think that remote employees are not as productive as usual in office, the reality of the matter is that most remote employees actually see an increase in productivity equal to a complete additional working day. So how do you efficiently handle a distant team? How can you contribute to its growth, commitment and coordination? Below are some tips that we have collected to assist you find the response. TIP 1 – Maintain high performance If your team scatters throughout the world, productivity can be impacted, unless certain measures are taken to keep it. It is not only difficult to say in a virtual environment how much time your staff spend on assignments and how successful they are, but also it is essential to be evident how the entire team handles the workload. Therefore, it is essential that a business process is well thought-out and that several software tools are used. Training tools such as Toggl or Clockify can help you to really understand the processes underway, the amount of time spent on these projects, and the number of breaks taken in real time. This allows executives to identify the weaknesses of each worker and attempt to solve them. This doesn’t imply that you need to overuse these applications and develop stringent procedures. If you work remotely, you are likely to choose this due to the flexibility it provides you. Managers need to strike a balance between liberty and coherent timescales for their staff. For instance, they must decide which communication instruments they use to discuss issues of great significance–Chat with urgent subjects, Email with stuff to wait and Video Calls. Furthermore, all project information must be available to every member of the team (instruments like Google Drive and DropBox may assist). It must also ensure complete transparency and transparency. They also need to bear in mind always that distant workers can all operate in distinct time zones, so that everyone can tune in to a video call, it is essential to discover a time window. Also, when employing persons, you need to ensure that your location time differences are not more than 3 hours from the time zone of your office. Due to time differences, for each conference you always have to have a very clear agenda and must stick to it. Finally, you need to measure the yield to always have your hand on the pulse. Try to list all the main points in the work of each team member that indicate the performance. Set clear objectives with measurable outcomes so you can see clearly what is anticipated and how well your staff are responding to these expectations. Hold monthly reviews in the team to see how all people work together and whether everyone handles them properly. However, do not be scared to give honest feedback, remember that individuals almost always concentrate more on beneficial than adverse points. This is why executives have to be frank and always attempt to discover something useful at the end. TIP 2 – Strengthen communication skills For each team, good communication between employees is essential, but for distant teams in particular. The absence of physical attendance and distinct working schedules can all lead your team members to operate as people instead of a united front. Remote teams effectively need to interact twice if not three times the ordinary team. And executives must support these communications by creating more possibilities. Set some of your team’s prompters. Say you always mark the time places if you are on your schedule for calls. Select and ensure your team uses the primary communication instruments. Implement instruments like Slack, WebEx and Skype and let your staff know that they are available all the time. Agree on the duration of an email reply so that you understand when to expect answers to your message. Try as much as necessary to integrate video calls. IMCCAs have found that, when they actively use video conference instruments, 90% of remote personnel feel more linked with their team. Video enables your team to make a name face and bind better. When you see a individual, it’s always simpler to speak to than just by messaging. Video calling helps your distant team feel moved and isolated less. Share your screen with your team members to facilitate and clarify clarifications. Create distinct channels for sharing of interesting stuff, such as fun stories, suggestions for films or updates on TV shows that you all view. Your purpose is to create a virtual environment that fosters and enhances communication between your team. TIP 3 – Engaging, Inspiring And Motivating The main element of effective teamwork is motivation. Entrepreneur says company costs 450 to $550 billion per year in losses of productivity for an unmotivated or de-engaged employee. Managers who work with remote teams have to invest in them and work hard every day to increase morality. In distant teams it is even more essential to build a powerful corporate culture than in the physical. Begin with transparency, one of the basic elements of a driven team. You need to make sure that all of your team know precisely what the business is doing, its goals and its role. Share corporate news and updates, celebrate your own accomplishments and attempt to make your team feel real. Be frank and let them know you as their leader. Discuss yourselves with them and share your private vision. Describe the stuff you handle at the moment, so they know that you do as difficult as you do. Request your advice on various issues and opinions. Be in keeping with feedback and with your praise in particular. Don’t just ask them to do a nice job, but to highlight certain accomplishments and duties. In corporate public chats, try also to praise your distant staff for their accomplishments throughout the whole business. Create your team’s rituals and traditions. Celebrate the birthdays and unique occasions of your distant staff. Why doesn’t every team member ask for a brief video that you wish to edit later and send to your partner celebrating? Improve camaraderie with true private communication through investments at least once a year in corporate retreats where your distant team can meet in reality. Find out more here about motivating your team. TIP 4 – Select your team with wisely Hiring individuals with the correct distance to work is your halfway to achievement. It’s all about everything else. You can also influence your entire team with a lazy or unprofessional distant worker. This is why certain precautions are essential during the recruitment process. First and foremost, nobody claims you have to employ the individual from the beginning. Test your skills and abilities for a number of months by employing them part-time and giving them the opportunity to work long term when you’re sure they’re a nice addition to your staff. Don’t be stingy with salaries. Just because your employee is working remotely doesn’t mean that they aren’t doing more than your typical office worker does. In most cases, remote workers are actually doing more, so their salaries have to reflect this. Make sure your fresh remote staff can function from home. Do you have a good working environment where you can concentrate without distractions? Otherwise, it may be better to propose either paying for co-working space or buying equipment to build that room at home for them. Take into consideration that your staff can all come from distinct nations and cultures. Learn how to talk obviously and broadly convey your message. Ask your team in their message to use easy phrases and a neutral tone. Maintain a calendar of all global holidays affecting and planning your team members. Make sure fresh staff are quick to retire. Create a guide with all the primary information about your job and the instruments you use. Ask your team members to share their finest advice on remote working. Recall the faster the better they adjust. Managing distance teams can be challenging, but actually you can create a skilled, loyal, hard-working team with a few simple rules to assist your company to succeed.
Education and training in trading are not needed: False - By Mickael Mosse
By Mickael Mosse - Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Expert Trading now is a common word in the financial field. But its meaning has myths and assumptions around it, viewing trading as an easy way to make money. Mickael Mosse sees traders as professionals in the crypto world, and their practice as a great option to use cryptos. Trading is the opposite of investment because it aims to short-term goals following multiple market strategies enveloped by buy-and-hold timing. Its success as a financial profession depends on the ability to be profitable over time. Now, traders can trade with assets like commodities or with cryptos; we will talk about the second one. Crypto trading could be:
No, the British did not steal $45 trillion from India
This is an updated copy of the version on BadHistory. I plan to update it in accordance with the feedback I got. I'd like to thank two people who will remain anonymous for helping me greatly with this post (you know who you are) Three years ago a festschrift for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri was published by Shubhra Chakrabarti, a history teacher at the University of Delhi and Utsa Patnaik, a Marxist economist who taught at JNU until 2010. One of the essays in the festschirt by Utsa Patnaik was an attempt to quantify the "drain" undergone by India during British Rule. Her conclusion? Britain robbed India of $45 trillion (or £9.2 trillion) during their 200 or so years of rule. This figure was immensely popular, and got republished in several major news outlets (here, here, here, here (they get the number wrong) and more recently here), got a mention from the Minister of External Affairs & returns 29,100 results on Google. There's also plenty of references to it here on Reddit. Patnaik is not the first to calculate such a figure. Angus Maddison thought it was £100 million, Simon Digby said £1 billion, Javier Estaban said £40 million see Roy (2019). The huge range of figures should set off some alarm bells. So how did Patnaik calculate this (shockingly large) figure? Well, even though I don't have access to the festschrift, she conveniently has written an article detailing her methodology here. Let's have a look.
How exactly did the British manage to diddle us and drain our wealth’ ? was the question that Basudev Chatterjee (later editor of a volume in the Towards Freedom project) had posed to me 50 years ago when we were fellow-students abroad.
This is begging the question.
After decades of research I find that using India’s commodity export surplus as the measure and applying an interest rate of 5%, the total drain from 1765 to 1938, compounded up to 2016, comes to £9.2 trillion; since $4.86 exchanged for £1 those days, this sum equals about $45 trillion.
This is completely meaningless. To understand why it's meaningless consider India's annual coconut exports. These are almost certainly a surplus but the surplus in trade is countered by the other country buying the product (indeed, by definition, trade surpluses contribute to the GDP of a nation which hardly plays into intuitive conceptualisations of drain). Furthermore, Dewey (2019) critiques the 5% interest rate.
She [Patnaik] consistently adopts statistical assumptions (such as compound interest at a rate of 5% per annum over centuries) that exaggerate the magnitude of the drain
The exact mechanism of drain, or transfers from India to Britain was quite simple.
Drain theory possessed the political merit of being easily grasped by a nation of peasants. [...] No other idea could arouse people than the thought that they were being taxed so that others in far off lands might live in comfort. [...] It was, therefore, inevitable that the drain theory became the main staple of nationalist political agitation during the Gandhian era.
The key factor was Britain’s control over our taxation revenues combined with control over India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its booming commodity export surplus with the world. Simply put, Britain used locally raised rupee tax revenues to pay for its net import of goods, a highly abnormal use of budgetary funds not seen in any sovereign country.
The issue with figures like these is they all make certain methodological assumptions that are impossible to prove. From Roy in Frankema et al. (2019):
the "drain theory" of Indian poverty cannot be tested with evidence, for several reasons. First, it rests on the counterfactual that any money saved on account of factor payments abroad would translate into domestic investment, which can never be proved. Second, it rests on "the primitive notion that all payments to foreigners are "drain"", that is, on the assumption that these payments did not contribute to domestic national income to the equivalent extent (Kumar 1985, 384; see also Chaudhuri 1968). Again, this cannot be tested. [...] Fourth, while British officers serving India did receive salaries that were many times that of the average income in India, a paper using cross-country data shows that colonies with better paid officers were governed better (Jones 2013).
Indeed, drain theory rests on some very weak foundations. This, in of itself, should be enough to dismiss any of the other figures that get thrown out. Nonetheless, I felt it would be a useful exercise to continue exploring Patnaik's take on drain theory.
The East India Company from 1765 onwards allocated every year up to one-third of Indian budgetary revenues net of collection costs, to buy a large volume of goods for direct import into Britain, far in excess of that country’s own needs.
So what's going on here? Well Roy (2019) explains it better:
Colonial India ran an export surplus, which, together with foreign investment, was used to pay for services purchased from Britain. These payments included interest on public debt, salaries, and pensions paid to government offcers who had come from Britain, salaries of managers and engineers, guaranteed profts paid to railway companies, and repatriated business profts. How do we know that any of these payments involved paying too much? The answer is we do not.
So what was really happening is the government was paying its workers for services (as well as guaranteeing profits - to promote investment - something the GoI does today Dalal (2019), and promoting business in India), and those workers were remitting some of that money to Britain. This is hardly a drain (unless, of course, Indian diaspora around the world today are "draining" it). In some cases, the remittances would take the form of goods (as described) see Chaudhuri (1983):
It is obvious that these debit items were financed through the export surplus on merchandise account, and later, when railway construction started on a large scale in India, through capital import. Until 1833 the East India Company followed a cumbersome method in remitting the annual home charges. This was to purchase export commodities in India out of revenue, which were then shipped to London and the proceeds from their sale handed over to the home treasury.
While Roy's earlier point argues better paid officers governed better, it is honestly impossible to say what part of the repatriated export surplus was a drain, and what was not. However calling all of it a drain is definitely misguided. It's worth noting that Patnaik seems to make no attempt to quantify the benefits of the Raj either, Dewey (2019)'s 2nd criticism:
she [Patnaik] consistently ignores research that would tend to cut the economic impact of the drain down to size, such as the work on the sources of investment during the industrial revolution (which shows that industrialisation was financed by the ploughed-back profits of industrialists) or the costs of empire school (which stresses the high price of imperial defence)
Since tropical goods were highly prized in other cold temperate countries which could never produce them, in effect these free goods represented international purchasing power for Britain which kept a part for its own use and re-exported the balance to other countries in Europe and North America against import of food grains, iron and other goods in which it was deficient.
Re-exports necessarily adds value to goods when the goods are processed and when the goods are transported. The country with the largest navy at the time would presumably be in very good stead to do the latter.
The British historians Phyllis Deane and WA Cole presented an incorrect estimate of Britain’s 18th-19th century trade volume, by leaving out re-exports completely. I found that by 1800 Britain’s total trade was 62% higher than their estimate, on applying the correct definition of trade including re-exports, that is used by the United Nations and by all other international organisations.
While interesting, and certainly expected for such an old book, re-exporting necessarily adds value to goods.
When the Crown took over from the Company, from 1861 a clever system was developed under which all of India’s financial gold and forex earnings from its fast-rising commodity export surplus with the world, was intercepted and appropriated by Britain. As before up to a third of India’s rising budgetary revenues was not spent domestically but was set aside as ‘expenditure abroad’.
So, what does this mean? Britain appropriated all of India's earnings, and then spent a third of it aboard? Not exactly. She is describing home charges see Roy (2019) again:
Some of the expenditures on defense and administration were made in sterling and went out of the country. This payment by the government was known as the Home Charges. For example, interest payment on loans raised to finance construction of railways and irrigation works, pensions paid to retired officers, and purchase of stores, were payments in sterling. [...] almost all money that the government paid abroad corresponded to the purchase of a service from abroad. [...] The balance of payments system that emerged after 1800 was based on standard business principles.India bought something and paid for it.State revenues were used to pay for wages of people hired abroad, pay for interest on loans raised abroad, and repatriation of profits on foreign investments coming into India. These were legitimate market transactions.
Indeed, if paying for what you buy is drain, then several billions of us are drained every day.
The Secretary of State for India in Council, based in London, invited foreign importers to deposit with him the payment (in gold, sterling and their own currencies) for their net imports from India, and these gold and forex payments disappeared into the yawning maw of the SoS’s account in the Bank of England.
It should be noted that India having two heads was beneficial, and encouraged investment per Roy (2019):
The fact that the India Office in London managed a part of the monetary system made India creditworthy, stabilized its currency, and encouraged foreign savers to put money into railways and private enterprise in India. Current research on the history of public debt shows that stable and large colonies found it easier to borrow abroad than independent economies because the investors trusted the guarantee of the colonist powers.
Against India’s net foreign earnings he issued bills, termed Council bills (CBs), to an equivalent rupee value. The rate (between gold-linked sterling and silver rupee) at which the bills were issued, was carefully adjusted to the last farthing, so that foreigners would never find it more profitable to ship financial gold as payment directly to Indians, compared to using the CB route. Foreign importers then sent the CBs by post or by telegraph to the export houses in India, that via the exchange banks were paid out of the budgeted provision of sums under ‘expenditure abroad’, and the exporters in turn paid the producers (peasants and artisans) from whom they sourced the goods.
Sunderland (2013) argues CBs had two main roles (and neither were part of a grand plot to keep gold out of India):
Council bills had two roles. They firstly promoted trade by handing the IO some control of the rate of exchange and allowing the exchange banks to remit funds to India and to hedge currency transaction risks. They also enabled the Indian government to transfer cash to England for the payment of its UK commitments.
The United Nations (1962) historical data for 1900 to 1960, show that for three decades up to 1928 (and very likely earlier too) India posted the second highest merchandise export surplus in the world, with USA in the first position. Not only were Indians deprived of every bit of the enormous international purchasing power they had earned over 175 years, even its rupee equivalent was not issued to them since not even the colonial government was credited with any part of India’s net gold and forex earnings against which it could issue rupees. The sleight-of-hand employed, namely ‘paying’ producers out of their own taxes, made India’s export surplus unrequited and constituted a tax-financed drain to the metropolis, as had been correctly pointed out by those highly insightful classical writers, Dadabhai Naoroji and RCDutt.
It doesn't appear that others appreciate their insight Roy (2019):
K. N. Chaudhuri rightly calls such practice ‘confused’ economics ‘coloured by political feelings’.
Surplus budgets to effect such heavy tax-financed transfers had a severe employment–reducing and income-deflating effect: mass consumption was squeezed in order to release export goods. Per capita annual foodgrains absorption in British India declined from 210 kg. during the period 1904-09, to 157 kg. during 1937-41, and to only 137 kg by 1946.
If even a part of its enormous foreign earnings had been credited to it and not entirely siphoned off, India could have imported modern technology to build up an industrial structure as Japan was doing.
This is, unfortunately, impossible to prove. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication that India would've united (this is arguably more plausible than the given counterfactual1). Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been nuked in WW2, much like Japan. Had the British not arrived in India, there is no clear indication India would not have been invaded by lizard people, much like Japan. The list continues eternally. Nevertheless, I will charitably examine the given counterfactual anyway. Did pre-colonial India have industrial potential? The answer is a resounding no. From Gupta (1980):
This article starts from the premise that while economic categories - the extent of commodity production, wage labour, monetarisation of the economy, etc - should be the basis for any analysis of the production relations of pre-British India, it is the nature of class struggles arising out of particular class alignments that finally gives the decisive twist to social change. Arguing on this premise, and analysing the available evidence, this article concludes that there was little potential for industrial revolution before the British arrived in India because, whatever might have been the character of economic categories of that period,the class relations had not sufficiently matured to develop productive forces and the required class struggle for a 'revolution' to take place.
Yet all of this did not amount to an economic situation comparable to that of western Europe on the eve of the industrial revolution. Her technology - in agriculture as well as manufacturers - had by and large been stagnant for centuries. [...] The weakness of the Indian economy in the mid-eighteenth century, as compared to pre-industrial Europe was not simply a matter of technology and commercial and industrial organization. No scientific or geographical revolution formed part of the eighteenth-century Indian's historical experience. [...] Spontaneous movement towards industrialisation is unlikely in such a situation.
So now we've established India did not have industrial potential, was India similar to Japan just before the Meiji era? The answer, yet again, unsurprisingly, is no. Japan's economic situation was not comparable to India's, which allowed for Japan to finance its revolution. From Yasuba (1986):
All in all, the Japanese standard of living may not have been much below the English standard of living before industrialization, and both of them may have been considerably higher than the Indian standard of living. We can no longer say that Japan started from a pathetically low economic level and achieved a rapid or even "miraculous" economic growth. Japan's per capita income was almost as high as in Western Europe before industrialization, and it was possible for Japan to produce surplus in the Meiji Period to finance private and public capital formation.
The circumstances that led to Meiji Japan were extremely unique. See Tomlinson (1985):
Most modern comparisons between India and Japan, written by either Indianists or Japanese specialists, stress instead that industrial growth in Meiji Japan was the product of unique features that were not reproducible elsewhere. [...] it is undoubtably true that Japan's progress to industrialization has been unique and unrepeatable
So there you have it. Unsubstantiated statistical assumptions, calling any number you can a drain & assuming a counterfactual for no good reason gets you this $45 trillion number. Hopefully that's enough to bury it in the ground. 1. Several authors have affirmed that Indian identity is a colonial artefact. For example seeRajan 1969:
Perhaps the single greatest and most enduring impact of British rule over India is that it created an Indian nation, in the modern political sense. After centuries of rule by different dynasties overparts of the Indian sub-continent, and after about 100 years of British rule, Indians ceased to be merely Bengalis, Maharashtrians,or Tamils, linguistically and culturally.
But then, it would be anachronistic to condemn eighteenth-century Indians, who served the British, as collaborators, when the notion of 'democratic' nationalism or of an Indian 'nation' did not then exist.[...]Indians who fought for them, differed from the Europeans in having a primary attachment to a non-belligerent religion, family and local chief, which was stronger than any identity they might have with a more remote prince or 'nation'.
Chakrabarti, Shubra & Patnaik, Utsa (2018). Agrarian and other histories: Essays for Binay Bhushan Chaudhuri. Colombia University Press Hickel, Jason (2018). How the British stole $45 trillion from India. The Guardian Bhuyan, Aroonim & Sharma, Krishan (2019). The Great Loot: How the British stole $45 trillion from India. Indiapost Monbiot, George (2020). English Landowners have stolen our rights. It is time to reclaim them. The Guardian Tsjeng, Zing (2020). How Britain Stole $45 trillion from India with trains | Empires of Dirt. Vice Chaudhury, Dipanjan (2019). British looted $45 trillion from India in today’s value: Jaishankar. The Economic Times Roy, Tirthankar (2019). How British rule changed India's economy: The Paradox of the Raj. Palgrave Macmillan Patnaik, Utsa (2018). How the British impoverished India. Hindustan Times Tuovila, Alicia (2019). Expenditure method. Investopedia Dewey, Clive (2019). Changing the guard: The dissolution of the nationalist–Marxist orthodoxy in the agrarian and agricultural history of India. The Indian Economic & Social History Review Chandra, Bipan et al. (1989). India's Struggle for Independence, 1857-1947. Penguin Books Frankema, Ewout & Booth, Anne (2019). Fiscal Capacity and the Colonial State in Asia and Africa, c. 1850-1960. Cambridge University Press Dalal, Sucheta (2019). IL&FS Controversy: Centre is Paying Up on Sovereign Guarantees to ADB, KfW for Group's Loan. TheWire Chaudhuri, K.N. (1983). X - Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments (1757–1947). Cambridge University Press Sunderland, David (2013). Financing the Raj: The City of London and Colonial India, 1858-1940. Boydell Press Dewey, Clive (1978). Patwari and Chaukidar: Subordinate officials and the reliability of India’s agricultural statistics. Athlone Press Smith, Lisa (2015). The great Indian calorie debate: Explaining rising undernourishment during India’s rapid economic growth. Food Policy Duh, Josephine & Spears, Dean (2016). Health and Hunger: Disease, Energy Needs, and the Indian Calorie Consumption Puzzle. The Economic Journal Vankatesh, P. et al. (2016). Relationship between Food Production and Consumption Diversity in India – Empirical Evidences from Cross Section Analysis. Agricultural Economics Research Review Gupta, Shaibal (1980). Potential of Industrial Revolution in Pre-British India. Economic and Political Weekly Raychaudhuri, Tapan (1983). I - The mid-eighteenth-century background. Cambridge University Press Yasuba, Yasukichi (1986). Standard of Living in Japan Before Industrialization: From what Level did Japan Begin? A Comment. The Journal of Economic History Tomblinson, B.R. (1985). Writing History Sideways: Lessons for Indian Economic Historians from Meiji Japan. Cambridge University Press Rajan, M.S. (1969). The Impact of British Rule in India. Journal of Contemporary History Bryant, G.J. (2000). Indigenous Mercenaries in the Service of European Imperialists: The Case of the Sepoys in the Early British Indian Army, 1750-1800. War in History
Education and training in trading are not needed: False - By Mickael Mosse
By: Mickael Mosse - Blockchain and Cryptocurrency Expert Trading now is a common word in the financial field. But its meaning has myths and assumptions around it, viewing trading as an easy way to make money. Mickael Mosse sees traders as professionals in the crypto world, and their practice as a great option to use cryptos. 📷 Trading is the opposite of investment because it aims to short-term goals following multiple market strategies enveloped by buy-and-hold timing. Its success as a financial profession depends on the ability to be profitable over time. Now, traders can trade with assets like commodities or with cryptos; we will talk about the second one. Crypto trading could be:
The act of buying and selling cryptos by an exchange service.
Read more details of these crypto trading options here. What is cryptocurrency trading, and how does it work? by IG Let’s demystify the next myth about crypto trading by Mickael Mosse’s explanations. Education and training in trading are not needed; it is just a random thing.
Elliott Waves Series Part 2 - The Broad ConceptYou can find Part 1 here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/hieuyw/introduction_to_elliott_wave_theory_overview_of/ The primary value that the Wave Principle (from here on out, abbreviated to WP) confers on market analysts is the ability to provide context for market behaviour. Having context is incredibly important. To put it simply, the WP can be thought of as a compass. Whenever you feel lost looking at a chart (ANY chart, ANY market!), the WP will help get you back on track. Clearing Up Some Misconceptions About Elliott Wave Theory:
R.N. Elliott first discovered the WP in the 1930s using charts of the stock market. Many misinformed people believe that the WP works “best” on stocks and has been adapted for use in other markets. This is simply false. To be clear - Elliott discovered the WP. He did not invent the WP. The WP is based on human social nature and therefore it cannot be invented. It has always existed. What Elliott did was to start codifying rules and guidelines around how human social nature can be charted. Ultimately, Elliott’s objective was to be able to predict future human behaviour using the historical record. The expression of human social nature generates forms and patterns. As these forms and patterns repetitive, they have enormous predictive value.
Another major misconception around the WP is that it requires a lot of discretionary analysis, and more often than not, analysts shoehorn price action to fit the Elliott Wave model. In fact, the WP has very clear rules (these rules are inviolate under any circumstance) and guidelines (these guidelines should be adhered to almost 100% of the time). While there is a discretionary element involved in counting waves, properly trained wave analysts will ultimately arrive at a consensus because following the rules and guidelines narrows the possible wave counts very quickly. Very often Wave analysts will have 2 counts at hand in terms of where they think the market is presently situated. These counts are known as the preferred count and the alternative count. These counts are validated and invalidated using price levels derived from Elliott’s rules and guidelines. The most dissent I expect from two educated Wave analysts is that one analyst’s preferred count could be the other’s alternative count. This dissent quickly resolves itself as the price action develops and validates or invalidates one count or the other. This dissent usually occurs based on wave patterns of one higher degree. It is very rare that I have seen dissent on immediate market movements.
I didn’t know this was a major misconception, but someone brought this up in my first post, “I stated that Elliott Theory has better success when working in consolidations or extreme ranging markets.” This is completely false. The WP doesn’t work better or worse regardless of the market or the market conditions. That would be like saying that breathing air only works occasionally. The WP is NOT a strategy, it is the definitive model for charting human herding behaviour. Human behaviour does not show up only in periods of consolidation or range-bound markets. The markets are themselves driven by human behaviour, therefore the WP is always equally applicable. From a trading perspective, the WP is perfectly suited to capturing trends.
Well, what about news events? What about supply and demand theory? What about fundamentals?! Doesn’t any of this stuff matter?? In short, the answer is no. I have previously stated that I am a macro-based investor. This is certainly true. Much of the research I consume has to do with market fundamentals and global-macro analysis. This research helps me form a view that I can overlay with the WP. From a trading perspective, when it comes to actually pulling triggers and taking positions, my decisions are always guided first and foremost by the WP. Here is a fantastic quotation from Bob Prechter on this topic, “Sometimes the market appears to reflect outside conditions and events, but at other times it is entirely detached from what most people assume are causal conditions. The reason is that the market has a law of its own. It is not propelled by the external causality to which one becomes accustomed in the everyday experiences of life. The path of prices is not a product of news. Nor is the market the cyclically rhythmic machine that some declare it to be. Its movement reflects a repetition of forms that is independent both of presumed causal events and of periodicity.”
The Bottom Line: Elliott Wave Theory is the best forecasting tool in existence. It has determined that the market’s progression unfolds in waves. Waves can be thought of as patterns that carry the market in a direction. There are a fixed number of the different kinds of patterns these waves can take. If you really boil this down to its essence, successfully applying the WP is as simple as identifying what kind of wave the market is currently in. I will end this now. The next part will deal with the overriding wave structure that the market is in, the different kinds of waves we will see, and why this wave structure exists in the first place.
Hello guys, First of all, if I had this idea odds are at least 100 other people have had it too so if y'all can point me in their direction and see how they have applied it, I would be thankful. I have been getting into neural networks a lot lately, and one of my first thoughts was to use them for the forex market. The main issue I ran into, however, was how to present the data to the NN. The thing most, if not all, examples I have read do is that they use an x number of previous candles + an indicator of some sort and maybe pairing it with another coin or some other variable to predict the next candle's closing price, or high, or low. After giving it a shot myself, it has been lackluster at best, and a complete failure at worst. The idea I have been thinking about was the following: use the previous x candles and indicators and other pairs and whatever not to predict the next candle, but to instead predict if at some point, any point, in the future, the price will rise by a certain amount (say 100 pips), or drop by that same amount. If we had a chart with the data for each candle (OHLC, an indicator's value, and another pair's value at that moment in time, for instance, all of which can be obtained from TradingView), and we associated with each candle a 1 if the first thing that happens at some point in the future is that it goes up by, say, 50 pips, or a 0 if the next thing that happens is that it goes down by 50 pips, then the neural network could be trained to predict based on the past if you trade on this candle, the price will go up by 50 pips in the future, in which case you enter the trade with a take-profit of 50 pips, and a SL of 50 pips, or if it will decrease by 50 pips in the future, in which case you do the opposite. That's the idea. If anyone's done it before, I would appreciate a link to their work, and if anyone thinks this is dumb, do tell me too.
These FX trading tools lets the user take their own algorithms and strategies and run them together. It allows for algorithmic strategy building along with no need for coding knowledge. For anyone that wishes to formalise their style of trading using algorithms. It offers: • A simple to use drag and drop interface • Ability to connect technical indicators and math functions • Templates that are easy to customise • The ability to implement strategies for platforms including cTrader and MT4 • Both videos and e-book for those just starting out VPS Want an FX trading tool that will be online 24/7? That's just what VPS (Virtual Private Server) is capable of. It's a remote computer made available to traders that are algorithmic. It gives the option of complete automation for trading, the terminal doesn't even have to stay running. The main benefit of this Fx trading tool is no interruptions. Expect lowered latency and zero down time! No reboots and protection of EAs are two benefits that have professionals using VPS more often than ever. Even set up will go on without a hitch using an easy step-by-step guide. Of course, having professionals set it up ensures that it's done right, and that traders are trained accordingly. The Economic Calendar A simple to use economic calendar is a priceless FX trading tool. It allows the trader to plan his or her day by the minute. Take control of currently released and previous reports that have been released as well as volatility generated and consensus forecasts. Knowing upcoming events that will happen in just the next few hours as well as days, weeks and months gives one an edge on other traders. Many are happy to know that there are automatic updates and live views of released event data. The ability to view previous events and analyse their effect on the market is invaluable and could easily make for better trades. Ease of Use No matter which economic calendar is chosen, one will see all the scheduled events broken down for the day at hand. By selecting an individual event, one will get even more information and data that can help make more than informed decisions on trading. Expect to see how much time is left until the next event, as well as those that have already happened. Expected volatility is presented as well as prior percentages and an actual consensus. All of these benefits will help anyone make the most informed decisions possible. Mobile Apps The Forex calendar is customisable so only what one wants to be informed of is seen. This makes it easy for beginners, and less stressful for experienced traders. One can change the time zone, country, category and volatility level to get detailed results that cater to their needs. Staying up-to-date on all the latest developments is easy with mobile apps for both Android and Apple devices. The calendar app can also be downloaded so that wherever one goes they have access to whatever information they need. Conclusion These are just a few of the FX trading tools available on the market. Aligning with experts in Forex is a smart way to ensure that one is getting the best setup for their personal trading needs and style. Forex can be a complicated platform for trade, but it can also be simple when the right tools and help are obtained.
Forex Trading: a Beginner's Guide The forex market is the world's largest international currency trading market operating non-stop during the working week. Most forex trading is done by professionals such as bankers. Generally forex trading is done through a forex broker - but there is nothing to stop anyone trading currencies. Forex currency trading allows buyers and sellers to buy the currency they need for their business and sellers who have earned currency to exchange what they have for a more convenient currency. The world's largest banks dominate forex and according to a survey in The Wall Street Journal Europe, the ten most active traders who are engaged in forex trading account for almost 73% of trading volume. However, a sizeable proportion of the remainder of forex trading is speculative with traders building up an investment which they wish to liquidate at some stage for profit. While a currency may increase or decrease in value relative to a wide range of currencies, all forex trading transactions are based upon currency pairs. So, although the Euro may be 'strong' against a basket of currencies, traders will be trading in just one currency pair and may simply concern themselves with the Euro/US Dollar ( EUUSD) ratio. Changes in relative values of currencies may be gradual or triggered by specific events such as are unfolding at the time of writing this - the toxic debt crisis. Because the markets for currencies are global, the volumes traded every day are vast. For the large corporate investors, the great benefits of trading on Forex are:
Enormous liquidity - over $4 trillion per day, that's $4,000,000,000. This means that there's always someone ready to trade with you
Every one of the world's free currencies are traded - this means that you may trade the currency you want at any time
Twenty four - hour trading during the 5-day working week
Operations are global which mean that you can trade with any part of the world at any time
From the point of view of the smaller trader there's lots of benefits too, such as:
A rapidly-changing market - that's one which is always changing and offering the chance to make money
Very well developed mechanisms for controlling risk
Ability to go long or short - this means that you can make money either in rising or falling markets
Leverage trading - meaning that you can benefit from large-volume trading while having a relatively-low capital base
Lots of options for zero-commission trading
How the forex Market Works As forex is all about foreign exchange, all transactions are made up from a currency pair - say, for instance, the Euro and the US Dollar. The basic tool for trading forex is the exchange rate which is expressed as a ratio between the values of the two currencies such as EUUSD = 1.4086. This value, which is referred to as the 'forex rate' means that, at that particular time, one Euro would be worth 1.4086 US Dollars. This ratio is always expressed to 4 decimal places which means that you could see a forex rate of EUUSD = 1.4086 or EUUSD = 1.4087 but never EUUSD = 1.40865. The rightmost digit of this ratio is referred to as a 'pip'. So, a change from EUUSD = 1.4086 to EUUSD = 1.4088 would be referred to as a change of 2 pips. One pip, therefore is the smallest unit of trade. With the forex rate at EUUSD = 1.4086, an investor purchasing 1000 Euros using dollars would pay $1,408.60. If the forex rate then changed to EUUSD = 1.5020, the investor could sell their 1000 Euros for $1,502.00 and bank the $93.40 as profit. If this doesn't seem to be large amount to you, you have to put the sum into context. With a rising or falling market, the forex rate does not simply change in a uniform way but oscillates and profits can be taken many times per day as a rate oscillates around a trend. When you're expecting the value EUUSD to fall, you might trade the other way by selling Euros for dollars and buying then back when the forex rate has changed to your advantage. Is forex Risky? When you trade on forex as in any form of currency trading, you're in the business of currency speculation and it is just that - speculation. This means that there is some risk involved in forex currency trading as in any business but you might and should, take steps to minimise this. You can always set a limit to the downside of any trade, that means to define the maximum loss that you are prepared to accept if the market goes against you - and it will on occasions. The best insurance against losing your shirt on the forex market is to set out to understand what you're doing totally. Search the internet for a good forex trading tutorial and study it in detail- a bit of good forex education can go a long way!. When there's bits you don't understand, look for a good forex trading forum and ask lots and lots of questions. Many of the people who habitually answer your queries on this will have a good forex trading blog and this will probably not only give you answers to your questions but also provide lots of links to good sites. Be vigilant, however, watch out for forex trading scams. Don't be too quick to part with your money and investigate anything very well before you shell out any hard-earned! The forex Trading Systems While you may be right in being cautious about any forex trading system that's advertised, there are some good ones around. Most of them either utilise forex charts and by means of these, identify forex trading signals which tell the trader when to buy or sell. These signals will be made up of a particular change in a forex rate or a trend and these will have been devised by a forex trader who has studied long-term trends in the market so as to identify valid signals when they occur. Many of the systems will use forex trading software which identifies such signals from data inputs which are gathered automatically from market information sources. Some utilise automated forex trading software which can trigger trades automatically when the signals tell it to do so. If these sound too good to be true to you, look around for online forex trading systems which will allow you undertake some dummy trading to test them out. by doing this you can get some forex trading training by giving them a spin before you put real money on the table. How Much do you Need to Start off with? This is a bit of a 'How long is a piece of string?' question but there are ways for to be beginner to dip a toe into the water without needing a fortune to start with. The minimum trading size for most trades on forex is usually 100,000 units of any currency and this volume is referred to as a standard "lot". However, there are many firms which offer the facility to purchase in dramatically-smaller lots than this and a bit of internet searching will soon locate these. There's many adverts quoting only a couple of hundred dollars to get going! You will often see the term acciones trading forex and this is just a general term which covers the small guy trading forex. Small-scale trading facilities such as these are often called as forex mini trading. Where do You Start? The single most obvious answer is of course - on the internet! Online forex trading gives you direct access to the forex market and there's lots and lots of companies out there who are in business just to deal with you online. Be vigilant, do spend the time to get some good forex trading education, again this can be provided online and set up your dummy account to trade before you attempt to go live. If you take care and take your time, there's no reason why you shouldn't be successful in forex trading so, have patience and stick at it!
Why do a lot of people hate people that choose to coast in life?
I am a self admitted coaster myself, I am not ashamed to admit it. Although I coast, I still work very hard in the right circumstances, I just do not believe in unneeded toil. I do work, I am in the army, but even here I am basically going to stay in as minimally as possible while obtaining as much certification as possible that will lead to a somewhat cushy well paying job in the civilian world, I view it more as a relatively fun business opportunity that I am not totally emotionally invested into. Even still I try to do things as much my way as possible and not over stress, in basic training for example, I would pay people that didn't care about getting caught to burn shine my boots, a method that takes about 20 minutes at most and makes them look significantly shinier than the other recruit who spends hours spit shining them, during this time I would instead catch up on some much needed sleep. I don't feel like the pointless toil would of made me any more "disciplined" and I excelled during important physical portions and weapons training, stuff that actually mattered. Another example, about 3 times a week we would all get together for group PT, its usually pretty much cross fit. Anyway one guy in our unit has the "give all effort for everything attitude" that I find largely obnoxious and pointless for such irrelevancy, and of course he injures himself twice missing out on opportunities, while I am coasting though setting unit records because I have smartly built my cardio and strength at my own progression over the years. I used to own my own business before the army, I am not to proud to admit that it failed, pretty much due to inexperience and personal crisis, even still I worked very hard 100 + hour weeks and had established a moderately successful sales business that was mostly passive. I also attended networking events with other entrepreneurs and many had the same mentality, work insanely hard early for an easier ride later on, when I start another business inevitably, this is the end goal, have an easier life and more passive income, that is essentially what owning a business is. Of course another minority of these people took no interest "business loans" from their already wealthy parents so it was always a coast. One person I always look up to is an old forex trader that was a friend of my ex girlfriends dad. I have dabbled in forex myself and asked him for tips and opinions on my charting, he thought I was on the right track and shared much of the same mentality I do. I told him how people would laugh at me and mock me for trying so hard to learn how to trade stocks because of my background and apparent lack of education. He responded to me saying he had experienced much of the same scrutiny until he started making it big and that the average person likes to drag you down because they are pre-programmed to do so because the media makes it seem so unachievable without already having a level of "education" unachievable to the common person. This man is multimillionaire with no formal training and spends all his time traveling, going to his cottage, playing guitar with local bands and smoking pot, I strive to be able to do pretty much the same thing. I am not ignorant to the fact that a lot of people do not like me for what I am or what the perceive me as, I have been slacker based insult both to my face and behind my back, but a lot of people do like me as well and from what I have experienced already in life, the 40 hour plus workweek is pretty much a trap and the vast majority of successful people I have personally met (people that live off a passive/semi passive income and are well off NOT people making six figures and working themselves to death) share the same mentality and try to separate themselves from unnecessary toil and actually enjoy life.
2020 Foresight: What to do to Protect and Profit in Bear Market.
Not many people like to talk about bear markets, especially not when the more emotive terms such as "Stock market crash" are used. It's often looked upon as fear mongering, and sensationalism. Preparation is practical, though. This post is not intended to be fear mongering. In fact I want to discuss ways we can look at the market and plan for different scenarios that can mean we have no reason to be afraid. Even if the S&P500 was to trade at 1,000 (big drop from current price (Today is the 31st August 2019, price is 2,946), we can plan and act in such ways this is a non harmful event for us. Particularly those who have net worth's to protect that has heavy stocks exposure. This is not going to be one of these, "It's the top RIGHT NOW ... everyone panic!" sort of posts. Regardless of my views on this, I know this is a message that would not be well received. You do not know me, and too often people have cried wolf on this and been laughably incorrect. Instead what I will do is describe price moves in the indices that most people will have every reason to believe at this point can't happen. Hopefully, they do not happen. I am not gleefully fangirling for a market crash. I just think there is prudence in preparation. These events will not happen in the hours after I post this, so I'd ask you kindly suspend prejudices. There is nothing to be gained by bickering over opinions of whether this will happen or not. I just want to give my perspective on how a person should protect themselves after it happens, if it does. I'll cover some of the things I'd forecast will be points people will want to raise or questions likely to be asked. If you'd like to skip to the forecast and subsequent trade plan you can scroll down to the line break (unless you're going to make a common comment, then please read the following section first).
Why Do I think My Opinion Matters?
Many of you may be smarter than I in many ways, but few of you will have spent as much time assessing charting patterns as I have. Indeed, many people will scoff at the very idea of "lines on a chart" being worth anything. I'm not here to have this debate, I fully agree your view point is rational and logical. If I'd not spent years watching price charts every day, I'd think the same. I focus mostly on Forex markets. I know these well. There are many ways currencies look like they may move that are ways they should not move unless there is big problems in stocks. These are nagging warnings. The attitude to risk in the Forex markets is negative, and stock markets show dangerous patterns. I watch these topping sorts of patterns every day. I see them in intra-day crashes, intra-week crashes and intra-month crashes. Most major moves fit into these patterns, and when the same patterns are applied to previous stock markets in the months before they crashed, the way the patterns form and then complete (in a crash) is the same. From my perspective, these are just intra-decade crashes. There is little technical difference on the charts - although it's very different in the real world it affects. This is why I am doing this in a "IF we see this ... then this is likely". I know at this point in the pattern, my methods predict something that will be highly unusual. If that thing happens, if we do not crash after that, we'd be breaking the trend of all market crashes in history (this is not likely, it does not seem the smart way to bet your net worth).
Technical Analysis is Tea Leaves!
You're welcome to your opinion on this, and I do understand your point of view. I will not post examples to try and prove my perspective on it, since it will always be called "curve-fitting". All I will say is nothing I have done in my years of trading has involved me persuading others what I do works. I do not sell training or anything of the like. I've spent many years using the things I've learned to bet my own money, and I've done well. I will not debate on this subject, because it's always a deadlock. You can not convince me I've not seen what I've seen, and I can not show you what I've seen, and do not expect you to believe it without proof.
Stop Fear Mongering!
I really would like to re-iterate, I do not want you to be afraid. I am going to describe something that might happen that will be scary if it does happen. If it does not, there is no problem. I do not wish you to be fearful before, during or after. This is like "Stop, Drop and Roll". None of us ever expect to be ablaze. If we are, this is good information. It will be better than running about waving arms and feeding the flames to engulf us. All I want to do here is to give you the "stop, drop and roll" of a market crash. To prevent you panicking and making bad decisions at bad areas. To allow you instead to go, "Fuck! Okay ... well that's not good. Now I have to ..." if scary things do happen.
No One Can Time the Market!
People have predicted and traded every stock market crash in history. The fact that many people try this and get it wrong does not take away from the fact people get this right, then place the right trades and make millions. Not many people make understanding the ways a market moves their life's work. If you do, you get a good feel for it's mood at any given time.
[Fundamental Analysis ] Says That Won't Happen!
I am not here to debate analysis viewpoints. Doing so has little use, it's better to forecast, assess and then take the best actions. I'll confess I am too ignorant on many of these topic to engage in debate. I wake up every day 5 days a week and decide where to bet my money. In doing this, I've found charts forecast and news reports. I can find no way of making money by being told what happened already, so I use the charts. What I will say is for the warning move I will discuss to happen, something news related will have to change. Some catalyst event will have to happen. In 2008, it was Lehman. Make no mistake, the warnings were on the chart long before the bankruptcy was in the news.
Time in the Markets is Better than Timing the Markets
I am perfectly fine with this perspective, and not here to argue against it. If the market could drop 50% or more and you'd not be concerned because you think it will be back up in 10 years, this is none of my business. I'm a day trader, so for me personally timing the markets is everything. Spending a lot of time in the market day trading often means you've made a mistake. I'm looking for ways to get foresight into what market moves may develop and understanding of what times and conditions I can enter into these moves to profit from the. I want to stress I am not necessarily advocating the average person tries to time the markets. In the same way an electrician would not suggest you re-wire your own home. You also could not say to the electrician it's better to leave the lights off than risk getting a shock. Different preparations and skills sets give different possibilities. I spent a lot of years and lost money through a lot of them starting out learning how to do this. The things I will explain here will not allow a person to consistently time the market. If I may be excused a cheesy pun, this "crash course" will be dealing with only single event, and one single set of scenarios. What I want to put forward for you in this is price moves to watch for and then (really quite specific) levels of price that are likely to offer us the best prices to protect long stock portfolios, or take speculative short trades. Very thin area of assessment. Forecast and Plan.
What if the S&P500 Went to 2,200 ... Quickly?
It's the weekend, and the last day of August in 2019. The S&P500 has closed 2922 after rallying through the week after some sharp drops from all time highs. We may see record highs again if this keeps up ... but what if next week it opens and starts to fall? Or maybe rallies higher but can not make a new high and starts to fall. What if it falls faster than it did in the last drop, and what if this time it does not stop? What if it gets to the lows of 2790, and goes from there quickly to 2700. These big levels act as resistance and the market can not trade higher than them. Instead it hits them, reverses and goes down more. I think people would be nervous, but there'd be still the feeling of this being a normal, albeit tough, corrective move. There's weekly lows of 2,333. Above here the market is still technically up-trending. What if we got there, and the market went through it like it was nothing? What if the coming weeks or months we seen candles bigger than any we've seen recently? What if we were hearing news reports of record falls, rather than record highs? What if over the development of only weeks and some horrific trading days we went from today's 2922 to break under the 2015 lows of 1,886? I think people would be afraid! Nothing I am saying is for the purposes of fear mongering, but I think this is possible. I'd like to say I think it's "highly unlikely", but I am thinking a lot about how to structure real bets on it and I like my odds. If this happens, it's likely the market will go lower still. What you do during the following weeks and months may have a huge affect on your financial health by the start of 2021.
How Does This Scenario Look on a S&P500 Chart?
https://preview.redd.it/ggqyvs2f6xj31.png?width=658&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9d00d758caf655341bd4780a8277b7556546a50 That looks like it's not going to happen, right? I think that this looks like it's not going to happen. We learn through our life experience, and my life experience has taught me when I ignore what I think about things like this and build well structured trade plans that would assume it will happen, money comes. For me, this makes sense to bet on at the moment, as unlikely as it looks. That's getting a bit into "Calling the high", though. \Which this is not about. This is about what do you do if this happens? What if there is a day when they say on the news that the market just made it's lowest point in the last five years ... and economists and experts say it can go down more! 1 - Filter and assess your sources. Before you act or even think about the information these sources have (pertaining to what trades to make or expect), check what they were saying now. If they're not saying this could happen - don't worry too much about what they say happens next. They have as much chance of being wrong. 2 - Do not panic. This is a time to remain calm. Bad things have happened, and there will have been multiple days the market has dropped precipitously. Different economic factors explaining these moves may be threatening to get worse and the market may take more dangerous swings spiking under recent lows. This is the point at which most people will panic and make bad choices with their portfolio. 3 - Buy Around 1,800 This obviously sounds like something anyone would do right now, with price at 2,922; but with the conditions that'd have to be occurring for this of move to happen will make this highly counter intuitive at the time. 4 - Understand Something Changed, New Highs are Not Coming From peak pessimism around 1,800 I expect the market to start to rally. Rallying strong. Making markets great again. At this point, you should understand something has changed. The market is not meant to trade at that level in an up-trend. Frequently when these levels 'break', there is a strong counter move that is fierce. It's also brief. We can buy here and offset some of the losses in the mini bounce (but be very cautious). 2,129 area is where the danger of a bear move comes back in. It might rally a bit above here into 2,333. This is where the second mistake many people will make will be. Not buying the lows, but then starting to buy into this rally thinking it's going to new highs. Very Important: If price makes moves consistent with what I've described 2,220 - 2,300 are hedge areas. If you take appropriate actions in these areas you can protect yourself from the chance of excessive loss if the market is to crash in 2020. You can also do this without taking on much risk. Granted if you hedge long portfolios there is some risk of losing a little, but your area of risk on these hedges is less than the area of risk on a long portfolio after this has happened. When this has happened, historically it's always led to a crash in the coming months/year. We'll have done something the markets do not usually do. Big corrections may look similar, but when you deal with this all the time, you come to know there are specifics that should be noted. If the levels I've mentioned for a buy fill, the market is crashing. It's no longer a question of if. 5 - Hold Hedges Until 1,100 If we crash, the low will probably be only a bit below this level. Anything more than this in a fall would be truly horrific (I know many people think this is horrific, but from a technical point of view this is really to be expected, and not unusual. It only happens after long periods of time, so it's unexpected and uncommon. It not unusual in trend formation). https://preview.redd.it/puc4slkk6xj31.png?width=662&format=png&auto=webp&s=69e219ba15beddd6bbc944898efa8bce74cd3c85 I am not a financial adviser, and can not tell you any trades you should be making to hedge portfolios or to take speculative positions. I've given these levels on the S&P500, and there are many things correlated to this you could use to protect portfolios. If this happens, I will be very much 'In the trenches'. I'll be trading in various markets every day and sharing some of my insights and trade plans, but I can't tell you specifically what to do. I am only sharing this with you to let you know there are strategies people have used in the past to predict crashes, and I've used these strategies a lot and become good with them. They now predict a market crash starting in 2019, developing through 2020, and the things I've explained in this post would be the next steps if the prediction is accurate. If the next steps happen, the strategy would then forecast the S&P500 to go from 2,200 - 2,400 sort of range to 1,000. I am asking no one to take this seriously at the moment, but I would suggest if the market makes moves similar to what I've described - you then consider there may be a lot of merit to what it further forecasts. Things could look very different from how they do this weekend in a few weekends time.
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